Maskirovka

Thoughts on Kherson and Kharkov campaigns

I think it is now absolutely clear that Russia's withdrawal in the Kherson region was a strategic move in order to draw Ukrainian / NATO forces away from the south. Shortly after the Russians secured Kherson and Zaporozhye back in May 2022, the local authorities announced plans for a referendum on independence and union with Russia. These were new moves in terms of Russian v Ukrainian relations and at variance with the originally stated aims of the Special Military Operation (which only mentioned the liberation of the Donbas republics). Ukraine immediately vowed to prevent these referendums militarily and began assembling forces for a counter-offensive. Shelling, missile strikes and targeted assassinations and bombings occurred in the liberated territories, which led authorities to drop discussion of the referendums due to safety considerations. Obviously, planning continued in secret.

Ukraine continued its military build up for the campaign and the Russians obligingly blasted the assembling troop concentrations, causing enormous causalities and material destruction. The offensive, when it came, was an utter failure for Ukraine and NATO. Despite the slaughter and failure to achieve any of its tactical objectives, the Ukrainians continued to press ahead regardless. I believe the Russian general staff anticipated this and, aware of the timelines for the rescheduled referendums and the necessity that they be conducted in safety, began to prepare a distraction in the north that would be so tempting to the Ukrainians and their NATO handlers, that they would not be able to resist.

The Russians have been masters of military deception since the Second World War. Operation Bagration (1944) - the largest military offensive in history - was planned and prepared undetected by German intelligence. For deception to work however, it must be absolutely believable. NATO and US spy satellites are monitoring the Ukrainian battle-space 24/7 and they began detecting the Russians moving troops out of the Kharkov sector when the Kherson campaign started. This was being reported throughout the western press. To all intents and purposes it did look like the Russians were under pressure and having to juggle troop dispositions to maintain the Kherson front. Within Kharkov sector, construction of defensive lines was underway behind the front, while lightly armed border forces, local militias and military police units began to appear. Western intelligence must have been observing these moves and listening to the radio traffic and drawing the obvious conclusion - the Russians were weakening their northern flank due to the pressure on Kherson and began planning a Kharkov offensive.

When the Kharkov offensive began, the Russians evacuated the light units and allowed proper military units to stage a fighting rear-guard withdrawal, retiring in stages through each of the prepared defense lines, taking a toll on the invaders. The Ukrainians occupied the area up to Liman until they reached the Severdonetsk river, which formed a natural obstacle. Russian losses were light while Ukrainian losses were again catastrophic in men and material. The 'success' of the Kharkov campaign led Ukraine-NATO to throw all their forces into this sector, effectively ending the Kherson offensive in time for the referendums to go ahead peacefully. That is a strategic victory.

In addition, we should look at the ground abandoned by the Russians around Liman. The Ukrainians have seized a largely triangular bridgehead which can be assaulted on three sides by Russian artillery. It is a Verdun-style killing field that Ukraine cannot afford to relinquish politically. Ukraine will be bled white holding this ground. Again, Russia is dictating Ukraine's response on the battlefield and that is never a good outcome. That is a tactical victory.

It's very important to note that while there has been a lot of discussion among various commentators about the low numbers of troops involved in the SMO (true) and limited military resources, Russia is not in short supply. While all this weakening of the northern sector was publicly occurring, Russian Telegram channels were showing huge amount of military materiel being trained towards Ukraine, but this equipment was not arriving in either Kherson or Kharkov but held in the Rostok and Beograd regions. Clearly there really wasn't a critical shortages of men and materiel that could be sent to either Kherson and Kharkov. This is the giveaway in my opinion that these moves were part of a planned deception. Of course, the Russian general staff know the truth and they aren't talking.