Grain and ratlines

Don't hold your breath

After several months of behind the scenes negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with Turkiye as intermediary, an agreement has been reached to allow Ukrainian grain to be exported through their remaining ports, which is basically Odessa. Western media has been blaming Russia for all the world’s ills these days, but especially for the growing food shortage. The problems with global food production has been caused by deliberate western political and financial meddling, especially in the global south, blocking the sale and use of fertilizers in indebted countries. Sri Lanka is the poster child for this strategy - huge national debt, failed harvests, widespread hunger, political instablity and national collapse. The Sri Lankan disaster will not be the last.

Russia has calmly pointed out that it is not, nor has it ever, blockaded civilian shipping in the Black Sea, even withdrawing from the much over-rated ‘Snake Island’ so as not to be seen as threatening shipping lanes. In fact it has always been the Ukraine that was blockading the grain ships by mining the Odessa port and Ukrainian coastal waters. Neutral, civilian ships have been trapped in Ukraine’s ports since the start of the conflict, their crews held hostage by the Ukrainians - but none of this is admitted in the west.

Under the terms of the agreement, Ukraine will demine its ports and provide pilots to safely navigate the grain ships to and from the port. Turkiye will provide naval escort and ensure there is no weapons smuggling. Russia agreed it will not attack Odessa port and interfere in the grain exports.

Of course, the key condition of the agreement is that there is no weapons smuggling. This is a condition that the US and its NATO puppets will break at the first opportunity. Russia knows this and will have no illusions. This game was played dozens of times during the Syrian war, once again with Turkiye ‘acting’ as intermediary. As the Russian and Syrian forces besieged and crushed NATOs ISIS proxies, their western sponsors would call for the establishment of a humanitarian corridor ‘to protect civilians.’ With the open connivance of the UN and humanitarian bodies, NATO used these corridors to smuggle weapons and terrorists into Aleppo and other besieged cities. They didn’t need to worry about food and medical supplies because these were supplied as part of the humanitarian supplies, which the terrorists then seized for themselves.

As the US is not agreement capable it will not hesitate to use the grain route agreement to increase military supplies to Ukraine. It’s a guaranteed. Turkiye, is playing both sides for its own benefit - as it does - and will turn a blind eye. The Russians know this. One day after the agreement was signed the Russians showed that they know the US will cheat by conducting a missile strike on a Ukrainian gunboat in Odessa and destroyed a dockside warehouse where US harpoon missiles were being stored. This sent western media into hysterics, accusing the Russians of immediately breaking their agreement. The Russian Foreign Ministry explained bluntly:

“In the seaport of the city of ODESSA, on the territory of a shipyard, sea-based high-precision long-range missiles destroyed a Ukrainian warship in the dock and a warehouse of Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the United States to the Kyiv regime. Also, the production facilities of the enterprise for the repair and modernization of the ship structure of the naval forces of Ukraine were put out of action.”

There is no restriction on Russian strikes against military facilities in Odessa and the Odessa region. All obligations on Russia relate only and exclusively to civilian ships and that part of the port infrastructure that is involved in the export of grain. Once weapons smuggling is detected, the agreement is off and US cheating will be exposed.

Not that that will stop them.

More Wunderwaffen

It’s all HIMARs HIMARs HIMARs in the western media. The US initially sent four to Ukraine, which have all been destroyed. Another four were sent, then another four and now it’s proposed to send eighteen in total (the US has refused to acknowledge the destruction of the first four). Everything claimed about the HIMARs extraordinary military capabilities are nonsense. They can fire a full salvo of six guideable MRLS munitions approximately 80 kilometres. They can also be converted to fire a single, long distance guided missile up to 300 kilometres.

There is nothing in these capabilities that the Russians don’t already possess or exceed. Their Urugan MRLS complex fires salvos of twelve guideable missles. The latest version, the Tornado-S can fire MRLS salvos over 120 kilometres. Eight American MRLS are not going to turn the tide of the war. Not in a million years.

More interesting is an admission in a leaked Polish assessment of the state of the war. The Poles note that the western MRLS and self propelled artillery are actually being manned and operated by US and NATO troops and they are being supplied with targeting by western intelligence and satellite coordinates. Of course, the leaked assessment may be entirely fake, but the point it raises about the actual involvement of US and NATO troops on the ground rings true. These are complex systems and cannot be operated without extensive training, there’s also the risk that the Ukrainians will make away with these weapons for cold hard cash. Ukraine did not gain it’s reputation as one of the most corrupt countries on earth for nothing.

The truth is that US and NATO troops, right up to senior officer cadres, are fighting on the ground, commanding Ukrainian troops and fighting the Russians, where they are being killed and captured. There are many rumours of senior officers having been captured by the Russians, but we shouldn’t expect either side to openly admit this.